Why I Hate Polls Part II
The recent polls show that McCain is catching up to Obama and that the race is close. The recent polls also show that Obama is performing far better than Kerry and Clinton did during this time in their respective election years. Okay, so how can this happen? Wait, it can’t. The McCain catching up poll I got from the Wall Street Journal. The Obama performing better poll is from CSPAN radio. Which one then should I believe?
Neither. And not only should I not believe them, but I should ignore them. Again, who cares how the public feels right now? People are saying how Obama is poised to lose at this point, and I would ask how anyone could possibly say that. Who says he’s poised to lose? Republicans? Of course that’s what they think. I think the Republican party is grossly underestimated the number of Obama supporters and will live to regret banking on that fact should they lose. I’d say the race has only just begun. There are a lot of people who wait until once the debates have begun to finally choose their candidate. It’s their right to wait that long so that they can make the most informed decision possible.
I’ve never been polled. Then again I’ve only been allowed to vote for a little over two years, so I don’t expect to be called up. But even if they wanted to, how would they reach me? By calling the house I do not own? How can they get an accurate polling of young voters when most of them do not own houses and polls do not generally call cell phones?
While listening to the radio, I heard a comment saying how polls are good enough with just a diverse sample of people and that you do not need to poll the entire population, much like how doctors do not need all of your blood to run a blood test. This is the worst analogy I’ve ever heard. How can you compare people to blood? Your blood is mostly the same throughout your body minus a few imperfections. Can you say that about a population of people? If I scooped up a bunch of people from China is that the same as scooping up a bunch of people from the United States? Is scooping up a portion of Maine the same as a portion of Texas? I’d think not. And while you can get a few people to poll in from each state, there are no guarantees. Polls try to mimic circumstances, but it’s impossible to do so with so many variables affecting the poll.
The one thing to remember about polls is that they are snapshots of viewpoints at the time of the polling. This is extremely important. You cannot declare a candidate the winner before the election or it’s not fair. Remember when the media goofed in 2000? That can have a serious impact on voting, and that is not something I want to see happen.
I do not trust polls. I do not care about polls. I never participate in polls (although I’m not saying that I wouldn’t). Should you base your vote on a poll? Absolutely not.


